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Predict your potential finish time
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4 methods to predict your potential running race time.
What is my potential running race time?
For example, I can run 10 km in 50 minutes: what could be the half marathon marathon finish time? And for a marathon?
This page shows 4 methods to estimate theoretical times
at different distances based on a
performance at an input distance. In one case it is also necessary to know sex and age.
The results can be used as a reference for planning future goals. The lower the difference
between the distance used as a reference
and the distance of which you want to estimate the travel time, and more reliable will
be the calculation. It is therefore not advisable to estimate the theoretical time
of a marathon, for example, by using the time of a 10 km, but rather that of a
half marathon, or better the average of 2-3 recent half marathons.
Brief introduction to the algorithms used
We use 4 methods to predict your next race time based on a recent run. The average of these is then provided overall
Riegel formula
An empirical way to estimate the race time is to use the time and the distance of a recent run in the so-called Riegel formula. Pete Riegel proposed the formula in 1977.
Dave F. Cameron's Model
This model uses the top 10 times in the world at various distances to compute performances across distances. The Cameron formula is calculated by using a non-linear regression method.
Estimate based on VO2 Max
VO2 Max (also maximal oxygen consumption or maximal aerobic capacity)
is the maximum rate of oxygen consumption
as measured during incremental exercise.
The estimate based on the VO2 Max first computes
the VO2 Max, given the performance
entered, using the Daniels and Gilbert VO2 Max formula
The same formula is then used in reverse to estimate the times by using the same
VO2 Max found at the beginning. There is no analytic solution to solve
this problem, but the solution can be found numerically (we use the Newton's Method).
Age grading
This method is the only that uses age and gender of the runner.
With the so called age grading prediction we assume that
you will able to run the same age-graded performance at every distance.
The age-graded score is the percentage ratio between the
world record for your
age and gender and the time of your performance.
So, for example, a 40-year-old
man that runs 10 km in 50 minutes has a age-graded score equal to 55.4%. This value
is used to predit times at differen distances.
Predict your race result
Enter your times and estimate your final time. Examples? Here are a few.
I run 5 miles in 40 minutes, I am male, I am 40 years old: your average pace is 4'58"/km (= 8'00"/mi).
The average estimate to complete a half marathon is 1h50'25" (average pace: 5'14"/km ),
the estimate to complete a marathon is 3h51'29" (average pace 5'29"/km).
I run 15 km in 1h10', I am female, I am 35 years old: your average pace is 4'40"/km.
The average estimate to complete a half marathon is 1h40'19" (average pace: 4'45"/km ),
the estimate to complete a marathon is 3h29'38" (average pace 4'58"/km).
A table will show the theoretical times and the relative pace in min/km. In the last
line the averages of the 4 methods.
TABLE NOTE - HM: half-marathon (21.0975 km or 13.112 mi). M: marathon (42.195 km or 26.224 mi).";
Insert here your data to predict your finish time
| Distance | Unit | Time [hh:mm:ss] | Gender | Age |